Brentford v Luton
How the SharpXI model rated this Premier League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Brentford beat Luton 3–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 13 landed — the strongest being Bryan Mbeumo for 1+ shots total (94%, had 4). Its clearest miss: Carlton Morris for 1+ shots total (94%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Mbeumo | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 4 | ✓ |
| Neal Maupay | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 4 | ✓ |
| Carlton Morris | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 0 | ✗ |
| Saman Ghoddos | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Yoane Wissa | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 3 | ✓ |
| Christian Nørgaard | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 4 | ✓ |
| Tahith Chong | fouls drawn | 1+ | 90% | 3 | ✓ |
| Frank Onyeka | fouls drawn | 1+ | 90% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jacob Brown | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 2 | ✓ |
| Elijah Adebayo | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| Yehor Yarmoliuk | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| Tahith Chong | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ross Barkley | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 3 | ✓ |
| Frank Onyeka | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 68% | 4 goals | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 54% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 30% | 3 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match goals Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Luton 1–5 Brentford Apr 2024
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Brentford v Luton?
13 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Brentford v Luton?
The most confident call it got wrong was Carlton Morris at 94% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Premier League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.