Premier League · 23/24

Brentford v Luton

How the SharpXI model rated this Premier League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.

Brentford3 – 1 Luton 2 Dec 2023

Model scoreboard. Of the model's 14 most-confident calls on this match, 11 landed. A single game is noise, not a verdict — but every call here was published by the same model, priced the same way. This is what an honest track record looks like.

See the full player stats board~~Both likely XIs side by side — hit rates over your chosen window, add to your slip~~ ›

Player markets — the model's calls

Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.

Player	Market	Line	Model	Actual	Result
Neal Maupay	shots total	1+	100%	4	✓
Bryan Mbeumo	shots total	1+	100%	4	✓
Yoane Wissa	shots total	1+	95%	3	✓
Carlton Morris	shots total	1+	93%	0	✗
Elijah Adebayo	shots total	1+	93%	1	✓
Jacob Brown	shots total	1+	93%	2	✓
Saman Ghoddos	shots total	1+	93%	2	✓
Andros Townsend	shots total	1+	90%	0	✗
Christian Nørgaard	shots total	1+	88%	1	✓
Chiedozie Ogbene	shots total	1+	88%	0	✗
Frank Onyeka	shots total	1+	88%	2	✓
Yehor Yarmoliuk	shots total	1+	88%	1	✓
Frank Onyeka	fouls drawn	1+	86%	1	✓
Ross Barkley	shots total	1+	85%	3	✓

Team & match markets

Market	Line	Model	Actual	Result
Match goals	O2.5	65%	4 goals	✓
Btts	Yes	52%	Yes	✓
Match cards	O4.5	28%	3 cards	✗

Dig deeper

Brentford & Luton player stats→ Brentford players & stats→ Luton players & stats→ Shots on target model→ To be carded model→ Guide: bet builder value→

Past meetings

Luton 1–5 Brentford Apr 2024

SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.

See the track record How the model works