Premier League · 23/24

Luton v Chelsea

How the SharpXI model rated this Premier League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.

Luton2 – 3 Chelsea 30 Dec 2023

Model scoreboard. Of the model's 14 most-confident calls on this match, 12 landed. A single game is noise, not a verdict — but every call here was published by the same model, priced the same way. This is what an honest track record looks like.

See the full player stats board~~Both likely XIs side by side — hit rates over your chosen window, add to your slip~~ ›

Player markets — the model's calls

Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.

Player	Market	Line	Model	Actual	Result
Christopher Nkunku	shots total	1+	100%	0	✗
Armando Broja	shots total	1+	100%	1	✓
Nicolas Jackson	shots total	1+	100%	2	✓
Noni Madueke	shots total	1+	100%	2	✓
Cole Palmer	shots total	1+	96%	5	✓
Elijah Adebayo	shots total	1+	88%	3	✓
Carlton Morris	shots total	1+	88%	2	✓
Andros Townsend	shots total	1+	88%	0	✗
Jacob Brown	shots total	1+	88%	2	✓
Noni Madueke	fouls drawn	1+	85%	1	✓
Tahith Chong	fouls drawn	1+	85%	2	✓
Conor Gallagher	shots total	1+	83%	2	✓
Conor Gallagher	fouls committed	1+	80%	6	✓
Ross Barkley	shots total	1+	80%	5	✓

Team & match markets

Market	Line	Model	Actual	Result
Match goals	O2.5	60%	5 goals	✓
Btts	Yes	53%	Yes	✓
Match cards	O4.5	34%	4 cards	✗

Dig deeper

Luton & Chelsea player stats→ Luton players & stats→ Chelsea players & stats→ Shots on target model→ To be carded model→ Guide: bet builder value→

Past meetings

Chelsea 3–0 Luton Aug 2023

SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.

See the track record How the model works