Premier League · 23/24

Luton v Tottenham

How the SharpXI model rated this Premier League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.

Luton0 – 1 Tottenham 7 Oct 2023

Model scoreboard. Of the model's 14 most-confident calls on this match, 10 landed. A single game is noise, not a verdict — but every call here was published by the same model, priced the same way. This is what an honest track record looks like.

See the full player stats board~~Both likely XIs side by side — hit rates over your chosen window, add to your slip~~ ›

Player markets — the model's calls

Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.

Player	Market	Line	Model	Actual	Result
James Maddison	fouls drawn	1+	100%	4	✓
Richarlison	shots total	1+	100%	4	✓
James Maddison	shots total	1+	96%	2	✓
Son Heung-min	shots total	1+	96%	3	✓
Dejan Kulusevski	shots total	1+	93%	1	✓
Carlton Morris	shots total	1+	93%	3	✓
Jacob Brown	shots total	1+	93%	2	✓
Cauley Woodrow	shots total	1+	93%	1	✓
Elijah Adebayo	shots total	1+	90%	0	✗
Pape Matar Sarr	shots total	1+	88%	0	✗
Pedro Porro	shots total	1+	88%	2	✓
Chiedozie Ogbene	shots total	1+	88%	2	✓
Destiny Udogie	fouls drawn	1+	84%	0	✗
Yves Bissouma	shots total	1+	78%	0	✗

Team & match markets

Market	Line	Model	Actual	Result
Match goals	O2.5	54%	1 goals	✗
Btts	Yes	54%	No	✗
Match cards	O4.5	44%	5 cards	✓

Dig deeper

Luton & Tottenham player stats→ Luton players & stats→ Tottenham players & stats→ Shots on target model→ To be carded model→ Guide: bet builder value→

Past meetings

Tottenham 2–1 Luton Mar 2024

SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.

See the track record How the model works