Premier League · 25/26

Newcastle v Burnley

How the SharpXI model rated this Premier League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.

Newcastle2 – 1 Burnley 6 Dec 2025

Model scoreboard. Of the model's 14 most-confident calls on this match, 11 landed. A single game is noise, not a verdict — but every call here was published by the same model, priced the same way. This is what an honest track record looks like.

See the full player stats board~~Both likely XIs side by side — hit rates over your chosen window, add to your slip~~ ›

Player markets — the model's calls

Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.

Player	Market	Line	Model	Actual	Result
Anthony Gordon	shots total	1+	93%	3	✓
Nick Woltemade	shots total	1+	93%	1	✓
Jacob Bruun Larsen	shots total	1+	88%	1	✓
Anthony Gordon	fouls drawn	1+	86%	3	✓
Bruno Guimarães	fouls drawn	1+	85%	4	✓
Anthony Elanga	shots total	1+	78%	3	✓
Armando Broja	shots total	1+	78%	2	✓
Lyle Foster	shots total	1+	78%	1	✓
Bruno Guimarães	shots total	1+	78%	5	✓
Joe Willock	shots total	1+	78%	1	✓
Fabian Schär	shots total	1+	74%	2	✓
Lewis Miley	shots total	1+	74%	0	✗
Joe Willock	fouls committed	1+	74%	0	✗
Jacob Ramsey	fouls drawn	1+	73%	0	✗

Team & match markets

Market	Line	Model	Actual	Result
Match goals	O2.5	60%	3 goals	✓
Btts	Yes	43%	Yes	✓
Match cards	O4.5	23%	5 cards	✓

Dig deeper

Newcastle & Burnley player stats→ Newcastle players & stats→ Burnley players & stats→ Shots on target model→ To be carded model→ Guide: bet builder value→

Past meetings

SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.

See the track record How the model works