Premier League · 23/24

Newcastle v Luton

How the SharpXI model rated this Premier League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.

Newcastle4 – 4 Luton 3 Feb 2024

Model scoreboard. Of the model's 14 most-confident calls on this match, 8 landed. A single game is noise, not a verdict — but every call here was published by the same model, priced the same way. This is what an honest track record looks like.

See the full player stats board~~Both likely XIs side by side — hit rates over your chosen window, add to your slip~~ ›

Player markets — the model's calls

Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.

Player	Market	Line	Model	Actual	Result
Bruno Guimarães	fouls drawn	1+	100%	4	✓
Callum Wilson	shots total	1+	100%	0	✗
Anthony Gordon	shots total	1+	96%	2	✓
Harvey Barnes	shots total	1+	93%	3	✓
Miguel Almirón	shots total	1+	93%	0	✗
Jacob Murphy	shots total	1+	93%	5	✓
Elijah Adebayo	shots total	1+	88%	2	✓
Carlton Morris	shots total	1+	88%	2	✓
Ross Barkley	shots total	1+	88%	2	✓
Anthony Gordon	fouls drawn	1+	85%	0	✗
Harvey Barnes	fouls drawn	1+	84%	0	✗
Lewis Miley	shots total	1+	84%	0	✗
Chiedozie Ogbene	shots total	1+	83%	1	✓
Callum Wilson	shots on target	1+	80%	0	✗

Team & match markets

Market	Line	Model	Actual	Result
Match goals	O2.5	77%	8 goals	✓
Btts	Yes	60%	Yes	✓
Match cards	O4.5	28%	4 cards	✗

Dig deeper

Newcastle & Luton player stats→ Newcastle players & stats→ Luton players & stats→ Shots on target model→ To be carded model→ Guide: bet builder value→

Past meetings

Luton 1–0 Newcastle Dec 2023

SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.

See the track record How the model works