Premier League · 23/24

Luton v Newcastle

How the SharpXI model rated this Premier League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.

Luton1 – 0 Newcastle 23 Dec 2023

Model scoreboard. Of the model's 14 most-confident calls on this match, 12 landed. A single game is noise, not a verdict — but every call here was published by the same model, priced the same way. This is what an honest track record looks like.

See the full player stats board~~Both likely XIs side by side — hit rates over your chosen window, add to your slip~~ ›

Player markets — the model's calls

Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.

Player	Market	Line	Model	Actual	Result
Alexander Isak	shots total	1+	100%	0	✗
Callum Wilson	shots total	1+	100%	3	✓
Miguel Almirón	shots total	1+	100%	2	✓
Anthony Gordon	shots total	1+	96%	2	✓
Lewis Miley	shots total	1+	88%	1	✓
Sean Longstaff	shots total	1+	88%	1	✓
Bruno Guimarães	fouls drawn	1+	86%	6	✓
Anthony Gordon	fouls drawn	1+	84%	1	✓
Sean Longstaff	fouls drawn	1+	84%	0	✗
Jacob Brown	shots total	1+	83%	3	✓
Andros Townsend	shots total	1+	80%	3	✓
Elijah Adebayo	shots total	1+	80%	3	✓
Callum Wilson	shots on target	1+	80%	1	✓
Fabian Schär	shots total	1+	78%	1	✓

Team & match markets

Market	Line	Model	Actual	Result
Match goals	O2.5	65%	1 goals	✗
Btts	Yes	52%	No	✗
Match cards	O4.5	29%	4 cards	✗

Dig deeper

Luton & Newcastle player stats→ Luton players & stats→ Newcastle players & stats→ Shots on target model→ To be carded model→ Guide: bet builder value→

Past meetings

Newcastle 4–4 Luton Feb 2024

SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.

See the track record How the model works