Premier League · 24/25
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Newcastle v Southampton
How the SharpXI model rated this Premier League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Newcastle1 – 0
Southampton
17 Aug 2024
Model scoreboard. Of the model's 14 most-confident calls on this match, 8 landed. A single game is noise, not a verdict — but every call here was published by the same model, priced the same way. This is what an honest track record looks like.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bruno Guimarães | fouls drawn | 1+ | 100% | 6 | ✓ |
| Alexander Isak | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 0 | ✗ |
| Anthony Gordon | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 0 | ✗ |
| Harvey Barnes | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ben Brereton Díaz | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 2 | ✓ |
| Adam Armstrong | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 5 | ✓ |
| Jacob Murphy | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 0 | ✗ |
| Samuel Edozie | fouls drawn | 1+ | 85% | 1 | ✓ |
| Anthony Gordon | fouls drawn | 1+ | 84% | 4 | ✓ |
| Harvey Barnes | fouls drawn | 1+ | 84% | 0 | ✗ |
| Samuel Edozie | shots total | 1+ | 80% | 0 | ✗ |
| Joelinton | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 2 | ✓ |
| Joelinton | fouls drawn | 1+ | 78% | 3 | ✓ |
| Joelinton | fouls committed | 1+ | 77% | 4 | ✓ |
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 65% | 1 goals | ✗ |
| Btts | Yes | 53% | No | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 29% | 7 cards | ✓ |
Dig deeper
Newcastle & Southampton player stats→
Newcastle players & stats→
Southampton players & stats→
Shots on target model→
To be carded model→
Guide: bet builder value→
Past meetings
- Southampton 1–3 Newcastle Jan 2025
- Newcastle 3–1 Southampton Apr 2023
- Southampton 1–4 Newcastle Nov 2022
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.