Nottingham Forest v Coventry City
How the SharpXI model rated this Premier League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Nottingham Forest lost to Coventry City 0–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Liam Delap for 1+ shots total (94%, had 4). Its clearest miss: Morgan Gibbs-White for 1+ shots total (94%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liam Delap | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 4 | ✓ |
| Morgan Gibbs-White | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 0 | ✗ |
| Igor Jesus | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Brandon Thomas-Asante | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 3 | ✓ |
| Dan Ndoye | fouls drawn | 1+ | 92% | 1 | ✓ |
| Frank Onyeka | fouls drawn | 1+ | 90% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jack Rudoni | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| Loum Tchaouna | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ephron Mason-Clark | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| James McAtee | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 4 | ✓ |
| Dan Ndoye | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 3 | ✓ |
| Ephron Mason-Clark | fouls committed | 1+ | 84% | 0 | ✗ |
| Frank Onyeka | fouls committed | 1+ | 84% | 0 | ✗ |
| Xaver Schlager | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Fouls drawn Fouls committed Tackles
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 18% | 2 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match cards
Dig deeper
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Nottingham Forest v Coventry City?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Nottingham Forest v Coventry City?
The most confident call it got wrong was Morgan Gibbs-White at 94% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Premier League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.