Premier League · 24/25

Southampton v Chelsea

How the SharpXI model rated this Premier League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.

Southampton1 – 5 Chelsea 4 Dec 2024

Model scoreboard. Of the model's 14 most-confident calls on this match, 10 landed. A single game is noise, not a verdict — but every call here was published by the same model, priced the same way. This is what an honest track record looks like.

See the full player stats board~~Both likely XIs side by side — hit rates over your chosen window, add to your slip~~ ›

Player markets — the model's calls

Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.

Player	Market	Line	Model	Actual	Result
Cole Palmer	shots total	1+	100%	6	✓
João Félix	shots total	1+	100%	3	✓
Christopher Nkunku	shots total	1+	100%	4	✓
João Félix	fouls drawn	1+	100%	4	✓
Noni Madueke	shots total	1+	96%	7	✓
Ben Brereton Díaz	shots total	1+	93%	0	✗
Cameron Archer	shots total	1+	88%	2	✓
Adam Armstrong	shots total	1+	88%	0	✗
Cole Palmer	fouls drawn	1+	84%	1	✓
Kamaldeen Sulemana	shots total	1+	83%	0	✗
Christopher Nkunku	fouls committed	1+	79%	2	✓
Enzo Fernández	shots total	1+	77%	1	✓
Moisés Caicedo	fouls committed	1+	77%	3	✓
Malo Gusto	shots total	1+	74%	0	✗

Team & match markets

Market	Line	Model	Actual	Result
Match goals	O2.5	65%	6 goals	✓
Btts	Yes	60%	Yes	✓
Match cards	O4.5	54%	2 cards	✗

Dig deeper

Southampton & Chelsea player stats→ Southampton players & stats→ Chelsea players & stats→ Shots on target model→ To be carded model→ Guide: bet builder value→

Past meetings

SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.

See the track record How the model works