Boavista v Gil Vicente
How the SharpXI model rated this Primeira Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Boavista lost to Gil Vicente 1–3, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Róbert Boženík for 1+ shots total (98%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Marco van Ginkel for 1+ shots total (96%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Róbert Boženík | shots total | 1+ | 98% | 2 | ✓ |
| Abdoulay Diaby | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 1 | ✓ |
| Marco van Ginkel | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 0 | ✗ |
| Tidjany Touré | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 5 | ✓ |
| Moussa Koné | shots total | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Gboly Ariyibi | shots total | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Pablo Felipe | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 6 | ✓ |
| Kanya Fujimoto | shots total | 1+ | 79% | 0 | ✗ |
| Róbert Boženík | shots on target | 1+ | 75% | 1 | ✓ |
| Mohamed Bamba | shots total | 1+ | 63% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ilija Vukotić | shots total | 1+ | 63% | 0 | ✗ |
| Sergio Bermejo | shots total | 1+ | 63% | 1 | ✓ |
| Miguel Reisinho | shots total | 1+ | 63% | 1 | ✓ |
| Moussa Koné | shots on target | 1+ | 61% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Gil Vicente 1–2 Boavista Nov 2024
- Boavista 1–1 Gil Vicente May 2024
- Gil Vicente 1–0 Boavista Dec 2023
- Gil Vicente 3–1 Boavista May 2023
- Boavista 1–0 Gil Vicente Jan 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Boavista v Gil Vicente?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Boavista v Gil Vicente?
The most confident call it got wrong was Marco van Ginkel at 96% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Primeira Liga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.