Casa Pia v Gil Vicente
How the SharpXI model rated this Primeira Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Casa Pia drew with Gil Vicente 1–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 7 landed — the strongest being Murilo for 1+ shots total (96%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Dailon Rocha Livramento for 1+ shots total (96%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
9 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Murilo | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 2 | ✓ |
| Gustavo Varela | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 1 | ✓ |
| Dailon Rocha Livramento | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 0 | ✗ |
| Luís Esteves | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Yassin Oukili | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 1 | ✓ |
| Santi García | shots total | 1+ | 79% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jérémy Livolant | shots total | 1+ | 79% | 0 | ✗ |
| Kelian Nsona | shots total | 1+ | 79% | 2 | ✓ |
| Joelson Fernandes | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
| Cassiano | shots total | 1+ | 63% | 0 | ✗ |
| Gaizka Larrazabal | shots total | 1+ | 63% | 0 | ✗ |
| Gustavo Varela | shots on target | 1+ | 62% | 0 | ✗ |
| Murilo | shots on target | 1+ | 62% | 0 | ✗ |
| Dailon Rocha Livramento | shots on target | 1+ | 61% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Gil Vicente 2–0 Casa Pia Aug 2026
- Gil Vicente 2–1 Casa Pia Apr 2026
- Casa Pia 1–0 Gil Vicente Feb 2025
- Gil Vicente 1–1 Casa Pia Sep 2024
- Casa Pia 0–0 Gil Vicente Mar 2024
- Gil Vicente 2–0 Casa Pia Oct 2023
- Gil Vicente 1–0 Casa Pia May 2023
- Casa Pia 1–3 Gil Vicente Jan 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Casa Pia v Gil Vicente?
7 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Casa Pia v Gil Vicente?
The most confident call it got wrong was Dailon Rocha Livramento at 96% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Primeira Liga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.