Gil Vicente v Casa Pia
How the SharpXI model rated this Primeira Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Gil Vicente beat Casa Pia 2–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 9 landed — the strongest being Héctor Hernández for 1+ shots total (96%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Murilo for 1+ shots total (98%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Murilo | shots total | 1+ | 98% | 0 | ✗ |
| Héctor Hernández | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 2 | ✓ |
| Claudio Mendes | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 2 | ✓ |
| Gil Martins | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 3 | ✓ |
| Joelson Fernandes | shots total | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Rochinha | shots total | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Alassana Jatta | shots total | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Henrique Araújo | shots total | 1+ | 86% | 3 | ✓ |
| Santi García | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 1 | ✓ |
| Cassiano | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 1 | ✓ |
| Murilo | shots on target | 1+ | 73% | 0 | ✗ |
| Héctor Hernández | shots on target | 1+ | 69% | 1 | ✓ |
| Selvi Clúa | shots total | 1+ | 63% | 0 | ✗ |
| Gabi Pereira | shots total | 1+ | 63% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Gil Vicente 2–1 Casa Pia Apr 2026
- Casa Pia 1–1 Gil Vicente Dec 2025
- Casa Pia 1–0 Gil Vicente Feb 2025
- Gil Vicente 1–1 Casa Pia Sep 2024
- Casa Pia 0–0 Gil Vicente Mar 2024
- Gil Vicente 2–0 Casa Pia Oct 2023
- Gil Vicente 1–0 Casa Pia May 2023
- Casa Pia 1–3 Gil Vicente Jan 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Gil Vicente v Casa Pia?
9 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Gil Vicente v Casa Pia?
The most confident call it got wrong was Murilo at 98% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Primeira Liga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.