CD Nacional v AVS - Futebol SAD
How the SharpXI model rated this Primeira Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before CD Nacional lost to AVS - Futebol SAD 1–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 14 landed — the strongest being Jesús Ramírez for 1+ shots total (98%, had 7). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
9 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesús Ramírez | shots total | 1+ | 98% | 7 | ✓ |
| Paulinho Bóia | shots total | 1+ | 98% | 1 | ✓ |
| Diego Duarte | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 1 | ✓ |
| Tunde Akinsola | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 4 | ✓ |
| Guilherme Neiva | shots total | 1+ | 86% | 5 | ✓ |
| Pedro Lima | shots total | 1+ | 86% | 6 | ✓ |
| Gabriel Veron | shots total | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Daniel Júnior | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 3 | ✓ |
| Jesús Ramírez | shots on target | 1+ | 76% | 2 | ✓ |
| Paulinho Bóia | shots on target | 1+ | 75% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ze Vitor | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 2 | ✓ |
| Chiheb Labidi | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
| Liziero | shots total | 1+ | 63% | 1 | ✓ |
| Roni | shots total | 1+ | 63% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- AVS - Futebol SAD 2–2 CD Nacional Dec 2025
- CD Nacional 3–1 AVS - Futebol SAD Jan 2025
- AVS - Futebol SAD 1–1 CD Nacional Aug 2024
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on CD Nacional v AVS - Futebol SAD?
14 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on CD Nacional v AVS - Futebol SAD?
Every one of its confident calls landed this time — a single strong game, not a verdict. When the model does miss, those rows sit in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross; we never hide them.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Primeira Liga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.