CF Estrela Amadora v Vitória SC
How the SharpXI model rated this Primeira Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before CF Estrela Amadora lost to Vitória SC 0–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Kikas for 1+ shots total (96%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Gonçalo Nogueira for 1+ shots total (63%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gustavo Silva | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 5 | ✓ |
| Kikas | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 1 | ✓ |
| Rodrigo Pinho | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 1 | ✓ |
| Nélson Oliveira | shots total | 1+ | 86% | 4 | ✓ |
| Ianis Stoica | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 1 | ✓ |
| Telmo Arcanjo | shots total | 1+ | 79% | 1 | ✓ |
| Matija Mitrović | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
| Miguel Nogueira | shots total | 1+ | 63% | 1 | ✓ |
| Gonçalo Nogueira | shots total | 1+ | 63% | 0 | ✗ |
| Gustavo Silva | shots on target | 1+ | 62% | 2 | ✓ |
| Kikas | shots on target | 1+ | 61% | 0 | ✗ |
| Rodrigo Pinho | shots on target | 1+ | 59% | 0 | ✗ |
| Nélson Oliveira | shots on target | 1+ | 59% | 2 | ✓ |
| Robinho | shots total | 1+ | 55% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Vitória SC 2–1 CF Estrela Amadora Feb 2026
- Vitória SC 2–0 CF Estrela Amadora Mar 2025
- CF Estrela Amadora 2–2 Vitória SC Oct 2024
- Vitória SC 3–0 CF Estrela Amadora Jan 2024
- CF Estrela Amadora 0–1 Vitória SC Aug 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on CF Estrela Amadora v Vitória SC?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on CF Estrela Amadora v Vitória SC?
The most confident call it got wrong was Gonçalo Nogueira at 63% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Primeira Liga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.