Estoril Praia v CD Nacional
How the SharpXI model rated this Primeira Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Estoril Praia drew with CD Nacional 1–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 8 landed — the strongest being Jesús Ramírez for 1+ shots total (98%, had 1). Its clearest miss: André Lacximicant for 1+ shots total (98%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| André Lacximicant | shots total | 1+ | 98% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jesús Ramírez | shots total | 1+ | 98% | 1 | ✓ |
| Pablo Ruan | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 0 | ✗ |
| Yanis Begraoui | shots total | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Paulinho Bóia | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 1 | ✓ |
| João Carvalho | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jordan Holsgrove | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 1 | ✓ |
| Chiheb Labidi | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 0 | ✗ |
| Nodar Lominadze | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jesús Ramírez | shots on target | 1+ | 75% | 1 | ✓ |
| Witi | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
| Liziero | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
| André Lacximicant | shots on target | 1+ | 73% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jandro Orellana | shots total | 1+ | 63% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- CD Nacional 2–0 Estoril Praia Aug 2026
- CD Nacional 0–1 Estoril Praia Mar 2026
- CD Nacional 2–2 Estoril Praia Feb 2025
- Estoril Praia 1–0 CD Nacional Sep 2024
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Estoril Praia v CD Nacional?
8 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Estoril Praia v CD Nacional?
The most confident call it got wrong was André Lacximicant at 98% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Primeira Liga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.