FC Arouca v Sporting CP
How the SharpXI model rated this Primeira Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before FC Arouca lost to Sporting CP 1–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 8 landed — the strongest being Luis Javier Suárez for 1+ shots total (98%, had 7). Its clearest miss: Pedro Gonçalves for 1+ shots total (98%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pedro Gonçalves | shots total | 1+ | 98% | 0 | ✗ |
| Luis Javier Suárez | shots total | 1+ | 98% | 7 | ✓ |
| Francisco Trincão | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 1 | ✓ |
| Geny Catamo | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 2 | ✓ |
| Luís Guilherme | shots total | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Maximiliano Araújo | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ivan Barbero | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 2 | ✓ |
| Luis Javier Suárez | shots on target | 1+ | 76% | 2 | ✓ |
| Pedro Gonçalves | shots on target | 1+ | 76% | 0 | ✗ |
| Geny Catamo | shots on target | 1+ | 69% | 1 | ✓ |
| Naïs Djouahra | shots total | 1+ | 63% | 2 | ✓ |
| João Simões | shots total | 1+ | 63% | 0 | ✗ |
| Alfonso Trezza | shots total | 1+ | 63% | 0 | ✗ |
| Francisco Trincão | shots on target | 1+ | 61% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Sporting CP 2–2 FC Arouca Sep 2026
- Sporting CP 6–0 FC Arouca Aug 2025
- Sporting CP 2–2 FC Arouca Feb 2025
- FC Arouca 0–3 Sporting CP Sep 2024
- FC Arouca 0–3 Sporting CP Mar 2024
- Sporting CP 2–1 FC Arouca Oct 2023
- Sporting CP 1–1 FC Arouca Apr 2023
- FC Arouca 1–0 Sporting CP Oct 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on FC Arouca v Sporting CP?
8 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on FC Arouca v Sporting CP?
The most confident call it got wrong was Pedro Gonçalves at 98% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Primeira Liga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.