FC Porto v Casa Pia
How the SharpXI model rated this Primeira Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before FC Porto beat Casa Pia 4–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Luuk de Jong for 1+ shots total (98%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Rodrigo Mora for 1+ shots total (96%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luuk de Jong | shots total | 1+ | 98% | 3 | ✓ |
| Rodrigo Mora | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 0 | ✗ |
| Borja Sainz | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 4 | ✓ |
| William Gomes | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 3 | ✓ |
| Max Svensson | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 0 | ✗ |
| Gabri Veiga | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 1 | ✓ |
| Tiago Morais | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 2 | ✓ |
| Oluwakorede Osundina | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 1 | ✓ |
| Luuk de Jong | shots on target | 1+ | 75% | 1 | ✓ |
| Victor Froholdt | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
| Alberto Costa | shots total | 1+ | 63% | 3 | ✓ |
| Borja Sainz | shots on target | 1+ | 62% | 2 | ✓ |
| Rodrigo Mora | shots on target | 1+ | 61% | 0 | ✗ |
| William Gomes | shots on target | 1+ | 61% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Casa Pia 1–4 FC Porto Sep 2026
- Casa Pia 2–1 FC Porto Feb 2026
- Casa Pia 0–1 FC Porto Apr 2025
- FC Porto 2–0 Casa Pia Dec 2024
- Casa Pia 1–2 FC Porto Apr 2024
- FC Porto 3–1 Casa Pia Dec 2023
- FC Porto 2–1 Casa Pia May 2023
- Casa Pia 0–0 FC Porto Jan 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on FC Porto v Casa Pia?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on FC Porto v Casa Pia?
The most confident call it got wrong was Rodrigo Mora at 96% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Primeira Liga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.