Sporting Braga v Rio Ave
How the SharpXI model rated this Primeira Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Sporting Braga beat Rio Ave 3–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 8 landed — the strongest being Rodrigo Zalazar for 1+ shots total (98%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Tamblé Monteiro for 1+ shots total (78%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pau Víctor | shots total | 1+ | 98% | 1 | ✓ |
| Rodrigo Zalazar | shots total | 1+ | 98% | 3 | ✓ |
| Ricardo Horta | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 4 | ✓ |
| Gabriel Martínez | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 3 | ✓ |
| Diogo Bezerra | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 1 | ✓ |
| Tamblé Monteiro | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 0 | ✗ |
| Pau Víctor | shots on target | 1+ | 75% | 0 | ✗ |
| Dario Špikić | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ricardo Horta | shots on target | 1+ | 73% | 3 | ✓ |
| Rodrigo Zalazar | shots on target | 1+ | 73% | 0 | ✗ |
| Marios Vrousai | shots total | 1+ | 63% | 0 | ✗ |
| João Moutinho | shots total | 1+ | 63% | 0 | ✗ |
| Gabriel Martínez | shots on target | 1+ | 61% | 3 | ✓ |
| Antonis Papakanellos | shots total | 1+ | 58% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Rio Ave 2–2 Sporting Braga Aug 2025
- Rio Ave 2–1 Sporting Braga Mar 2025
- Sporting Braga 4–0 Rio Ave Sep 2024
- Rio Ave 0–0 Sporting Braga Mar 2024
- Sporting Braga 2–1 Rio Ave Oct 2023
- Sporting Braga 2–0 Rio Ave Mar 2023
- Rio Ave 2–3 Sporting Braga Sep 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Sporting Braga v Rio Ave?
8 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Sporting Braga v Rio Ave?
The most confident call it got wrong was Tamblé Monteiro at 78% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Primeira Liga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.