Sporting CP v CD Nacional
How the SharpXI model rated this Primeira Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Sporting CP beat CD Nacional 2–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Luis Javier Suárez for 1+ shots total (98%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Pablo Messias Cardozo for 1+ shots total (78%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fotis Ioannidis | shots total | 1+ | 98% | 3 | ✓ |
| Nestory Irankunda | shots total | 1+ | 98% | 2 | ✓ |
| Luis Javier Suárez | shots total | 1+ | 98% | 2 | ✓ |
| Flávio Gonçalves | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 1 | ✓ |
| Luís Guilherme | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 1 | ✓ |
| Rodrigo Zalazar | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 3 | ✓ |
| Geny Catamo | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 2 | ✓ |
| Issa Doumbia | shots total | 1+ | 79% | 1 | ✓ |
| Pablo Messias Cardozo | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 0 | ✗ |
| Luis Javier Suárez | shots on target | 1+ | 76% | 2 | ✓ |
| Nestory Irankunda | shots on target | 1+ | 75% | 0 | ✗ |
| Allen Obando | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 0 | ✗ |
| Fotis Ioannidis | shots on target | 1+ | 73% | 1 | ✓ |
| Flávio Gonçalves | shots on target | 1+ | 69% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Sporting CP 2–1 CD Nacional Feb 2026
- CD Nacional 1–4 Sporting CP Aug 2025
- Sporting CP 2–0 CD Nacional Jan 2025
- CD Nacional 1–6 Sporting CP Aug 2024
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Sporting CP v CD Nacional?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Sporting CP v CD Nacional?
The most confident call it got wrong was Pablo Messias Cardozo at 78% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Primeira Liga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.