Vitória SC v Benfica
How the SharpXI model rated this Primeira Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Vitória SC lost to Benfica 0–3, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being Vangelis Pavlidis for 1+ shots total (98%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Vangelis Pavlidis for 1+ shots on target (75%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vangelis Pavlidis | shots total | 1+ | 98% | 1 | ✓ |
| Dodi Lukebakio | shots total | 1+ | 86% | 3 | ✓ |
| Gianluca Prestianni | shots total | 1+ | 79% | 3 | ✓ |
| Andreas Schjelderup | shots total | 1+ | 79% | 1 | ✓ |
| Richard Ríos | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 3 | ✓ |
| Vangelis Pavlidis | shots on target | 1+ | 75% | 0 | ✗ |
| Oumar Camara | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
| Samu | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 3 | ✓ |
| Vando Félix | shots total | 1+ | 63% | 0 | ✗ |
| Fabio Blanco | shots total | 1+ | 63% | 1 | ✓ |
| Georgiy Sudakov | shots total | 1+ | 63% | 1 | ✓ |
| Telmo Arcanjo | shots total | 1+ | 63% | 1 | ✓ |
| Leandro Barreiro | shots total | 1+ | 63% | 4 | ✓ |
| Dodi Lukebakio | shots on target | 1+ | 59% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Benfica 2–0 Vitória SC Oct 2026
- Benfica 3–0 Vitória SC Mar 2026
- Vitória SC 0–3 Benfica Apr 2025
- Benfica 1–0 Vitória SC Dec 2024
- Vitória SC 2–2 Benfica Feb 2024
- Benfica 4–0 Vitória SC Sep 2023
- Benfica 5–1 Vitória SC Mar 2023
- Vitória SC 0–0 Benfica Oct 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Vitória SC v Benfica?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Vitória SC v Benfica?
The most confident call it got wrong was Vangelis Pavlidis at 75% for shots on target — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Primeira Liga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.