Primeira Liga 25/26

Vitória SC v Sporting CP

How the SharpXI model rated this Primeira Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.

Vitória SC1 – 4 Sporting CP 23 Dec 2025

13~~/14~~

of the model's most-confident calls landed. Every one was published before kick-off and priced the same way as every other fixture. A single game is noise, not a verdict — the season-long record is on the track record.

Before Vitória SC lost to Sporting CP 1–4, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 13 landed — the strongest being Luis Javier Suárez for 1+ shots total (98%, had 4). Its clearest miss: Oumar Camara for 1+ shots total (63%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.

Match officials-14% cards vs the league average

Miguel Nogueira refereed this match 4.47cards a gameleague 5.17 64games

Miguel Nogueira's card record

See the full player stats board~~Both likely XIs side by side — hit rates over your chosen window, add to your slip~~ ›

Player markets — the model's calls

Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.

Player	Market	Line	Model	Actual	Result
Luis Javier Suárez	shots total	1+	98%	4	✓
Fotis Ioannidis	shots total	1+	86%	1	✓
Francisco Trincão	shots total	1+	86%	2	✓
Alioune Ndoye	shots total	1+	79%	3	✓
Luis Javier Suárez	shots on target	1+	76%	1	✓
Noah Saviolo	shots total	1+	74%	1	✓
João Simões	shots total	1+	63%	1	✓
Samu	shots total	1+	63%	2	✓
Oumar Camara	shots total	1+	63%	0	✗
Nélson Oliveira	shots total	1+	63%	3	✓
Fotis Ioannidis	shots on target	1+	59%	1	✓
Maximiliano Araújo	shots total	1+	58%	3	✓
Matija Mitrović	shots total	1+	55%	1	✓
Diogo Sousa	shots total	1+	54%	1	✓

How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target

Dig deeper

Vitória SC & Sporting CP player stats→ Vitória SC players & stats→ Sporting CP players & stats→ To be carded model→ Guide: bet builder value→

Past meetings

Frequently asked

How did the SharpXI model do on Vitória SC v Sporting CP?

13 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.

What did the model get wrong on Vitória SC v Sporting CP?

The most confident call it got wrong was Oumar Camara at 63% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.

Are these probabilities hindsight?

No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.

Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Primeira Liga?

No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.

SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.

See the track record How the model works