Updated daily through the season. Spot something off? Tell usUpdated daily. Tell us
SharpXI©
Primeira Liga 26/27
DI

Diogo Nascimento

Midfielder Rio AvePrimeira Liga 26/27

Next match
Rio Ave vs Famalicão›
Sun 25 Oct
Last games
max 40 on record
What a window counts

Hit rates count the most recent completed games, newest first — reaching back into earlier seasons when the current one is short, and into games for a previous club, including in another league we cover.

All markets last 10 games

Compared with a Primeira Liga midfielder, 25/26, 2,874 appearances

Bet line
MarketHit rateModel
Shots on target0.23 per 90
20%
2 of 101.1×
Total shots0.58 per 90
30%
3 of 100.7×
Fouls won1.50 per 90
70%
7 of 101.3×
Fouls committed0.69 per 90
40%
4 of 100.7×
Tackles0.93 per 90
50%
5 of 100.8×
0%
0 of 0
Cards0.12 per 90
10%
1 of 100.6×
Goals0.00 per 90
0%
0 of 10
form only
Assists0.00 per 90
0%
0 of 10
form only
No bookmaker prices for this fixture yet. Player markets are usually priced closer to kickoff, and not every fixture carries every market. The hit rates and match-up above are complete either way.
Hit rate, per-90 and the market price are free. Switch the bet line above — each carries its own price where the bookmaker offers one. What’s paid is the model’s edge: whether that price is wrong. Rare tails the model can’t beat, like 3+ on target, stay hit-rate-only.

Five selections from the player report, free in your inbox

Picked from 298 selections across 77 matches on this week’s slate, each with its record and the market price.

Confirmed by a link. Unsubscribe in one click. Or open the player report.

Over the last 10 Primeira Liga games, Diogo Nascimento has hit 1+ shot on target in 20% (2 of 10), 1+ total shot in 30%, 1+ foul committed in 40%, 1+ foul won in 70%, and been booked in 10% (1 of 10). These are raw hit rates from completed matches, not odds.

last 10

Recent matches

The last 10 games Diogo Nascimento featured in — minutes and the counts that settle these markets.

MatchMinSoTShots FoulsWonTckCards
CD Nacional11 Oct 14 0 0 0 1 0 0
@ Estoril Praia22 Aug 90 0 0 2 1 0 0
FC Porto15 Aug 83 0 0 0 3 1 0
@ Gil Vicente9 Aug 83 0 0 1 0 0 0
AVS - Futebol SAD1 Jun 90 0 0 2 2 2 1
@ AVS - Futebol SAD24 May 90 1 1 0 2 1 0
@ Boavista18 May 90 1 2 0 2 0 0
CF Estrela Amadora11 May 90 0 0 0 0 0 0
@ Moreirense3 May 58 0 0 1 0 1 0
Rio Ave27 Apr 90 0 2 0 2 3 0
Officials on record
Luís Godinho 4 games Diogo Nascimento booked in 1 5.39cards/game 1.04×vs league
Gustavo Correia 4 games Diogo Nascimento never booked 5.97cards/game 1.15×vs league
Fabio Melo 3 games Diogo Nascimento booked in 1
Andre Filipe Domingues Narciso 3 games Diogo Nascimento never booked 5.35cards/game 1.03×vs league

Raw counts from every match on record, across 5 current Primeira Liga officials — the model applies each official's overall card tendency, not this split. All Primeira Liga referees

Frequently asked

How often does Diogo Nascimento have a shot on target?

Over the last 10 Primeira Liga games, Diogo Nascimento has hit 1+ shot on target in 20% (2 of 10). That's the raw hit rate from completed matches; SharpXI's model turns it into a true probability by adjusting for the opponent and expected minutes, then compares it with the bookmaker's price as offered.

How many shots on target does Diogo Nascimento average?

Across the last 10 Primeira Liga games, Diogo Nascimento is averaging 0.23 shots on target and 0.58 total shots per 90 minutes. SharpXI treats that as a starting rate, then adjusts for the opponent and expected minutes before pricing a 1+ or 2+ line.

How often does Diogo Nascimento get booked?

Diogo Nascimento is averaging 0.12 cards per 90 over the last 10 games. Bookings swing heavily on the referee, so the model multiplies a player's base rate by each official's card tendency — the biggest single lever in the to-be-carded market.

Does Diogo Nascimento commit or win more fouls?

Over the last 10 games Diogo Nascimento commits 0.69 fouls per 90 and wins 1.50 — winning more than committing. Fouls committed and fouls won are separate markets, each modelled from the player's rate and the opponent faced.

Which player markets does SharpXI model for Diogo Nascimento?

Shots on target, total shots, fouls committed, fouls won and to be carded — each as a true probability, compared with the bookmaker's price as offered. Diogo Nascimento plays as a midfielder.

Rates shown are raw counts from public match data for context; the model adds shrinkage, opponent and referee factors before flagging value, and compares against the bookmaker's price as offered — player markets are priced one side only, so that price still carries the bookmaker's margin. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.