What a window counts
Hit rates count the most recent completed games, newest first — reaching back into earlier seasons when the current one is short, and into games for a previous club, including in another league we cover.
All markets last 10 games
Compared with a Primeira Liga forward, 25/26, 2,890 appearances
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Over the last 10 Primeira Liga games, Gustavo Varela has hit 1+ shot on target in 60% (6 of 10), 1+ total shot in 80%, 1+ foul committed in 40%, 1+ foul won in 70%, and been booked in 10% (1 of 10). These are raw hit rates from completed matches, not odds.
Recent matches
The last 10 games Gustavo Varela featured in — minutes and the counts that settle these markets.
| Match | Min | SoT | Shots | Fouls | Won | Tck | Cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| @ Sporting CP16 May | 73 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| FC Arouca11 May | 64 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| @ Rio Ave3 May | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Casa Pia27 Apr | 29 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Vitória SC18 Apr | 79 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| @ Tondela13 Apr | 85 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| AVS - Futebol SAD3 Apr | 90 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| @ Santa Clara21 Mar | 85 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| FC Alverca14 Mar | 82 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| @ CF Estrela Amadora8 Mar | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Raw counts from every match on record, across 2 current Primeira Liga officials — the model applies each official's overall card tendency, not this split. All Primeira Liga referees
Frequently asked
How often does Gustavo Varela have a shot on target?
Over the last 10 Primeira Liga games, Gustavo Varela has hit 1+ shot on target in 60% (6 of 10). That's the raw hit rate from completed matches; SharpXI's model turns it into a true probability by adjusting for the opponent and expected minutes, then compares it with the bookmaker's price as offered.
How many shots on target does Gustavo Varela average?
Across the last 10 Primeira Liga games, Gustavo Varela is averaging 1.14 shots on target and 2.71 total shots per 90 minutes. SharpXI treats that as a starting rate, then adjusts for the opponent and expected minutes before pricing a 1+ or 2+ line.
How often does Gustavo Varela get booked?
Gustavo Varela is averaging 0.14 cards per 90 over the last 10 games. Bookings swing heavily on the referee, so the model multiplies a player's base rate by each official's card tendency — the biggest single lever in the to-be-carded market.
Does Gustavo Varela commit or win more fouls?
Over the last 10 games Gustavo Varela commits 0.57 fouls per 90 and wins 2.00 — winning more than committing. Fouls committed and fouls won are separate markets, each modelled from the player's rate and the opponent faced.
Which player markets does SharpXI model for Gustavo Varela?
Shots on target, total shots, fouls committed, fouls won and to be carded — each as a true probability, compared with the bookmaker's price as offered. Gustavo Varela plays as a forward.
Rates shown are raw counts from public match data for context; the model adds shrinkage, opponent and referee factors before flagging value, and compares against the bookmaker's price as offered — player markets are priced one side only, so that price still carries the bookmaker's margin. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.