Dundee FC v Falkirk FC
How the SharpXI model rated this Scottish Premiership fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Dundee FC beat Falkirk FC 1–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Calvin Miller for 1+ shots total (94%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Ethan Ross for 1+ shots total (94%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Miller | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 3 | ✓ |
| Finn Yeats | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ethan Ross | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 0 | ✗ |
| Brian Graham | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Kyrell Wilson | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ethan Williams | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 5 | ✓ |
| Alfie Agyeman | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ashley Hay | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 1 | ✓ |
| Simon Murray | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ethan Hamilton | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 0 | ✗ |
| Yan Dhanda | shots total | 1+ | 81% | 5 | ✓ |
| Dylan Tait | shots total | 1+ | 81% | 1 | ✓ |
| Brian Graham | shots on target | 1+ | 73% | 0 | ✗ |
| Cameron Congreve | shots total | 1+ | 69% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Falkirk FC 1–2 Dundee FC Oct 2026
- Falkirk FC 1–0 Dundee FC Feb 2026
- Falkirk FC 2–1 Dundee FC Oct 2025
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Dundee FC v Falkirk FC?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Dundee FC v Falkirk FC?
The most confident call it got wrong was Ethan Ross at 94% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Scottish Premiership?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.