Heart of Midlothian v Motherwell
How the SharpXI model rated this Scottish Premiership fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Heart of Midlothian beat Motherwell 3–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Lawrence Shankland for 1+ shots total (96%, had 4). Its clearest miss: Sabah Kerjota for 1+ shots total (94%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cláudio Braga | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 1 | ✓ |
| Lawrence Shankland | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 4 | ✓ |
| Tawanda Maswanhise | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 3 | ✓ |
| Sabah Kerjota | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 0 | ✗ |
| Pierre Landry Kaboré | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 2 | ✓ |
| Lawrence Shankland | shots on target | 1+ | 89% | 2 | ✓ |
| Elijah Just | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| Alexandros Kyziridis | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 0 | ✗ |
| Blair Spittal | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ibrahim Said | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 1 | ✓ |
| Cláudio Braga | shots on target | 1+ | 73% | 1 | ✓ |
| Emmanuel Longelo | shots total | 1+ | 69% | 4 | ✓ |
| Elliot Watt | shots total | 1+ | 69% | 2 | ✓ |
| Tawanda Maswanhise | shots on target | 1+ | 67% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Motherwell 1–1 Heart of Midlothian May 2026
- Motherwell 0–0 Heart of Midlothian Nov 2025
- Heart of Midlothian 3–3 Motherwell Aug 2025
- Heart of Midlothian 3–0 Motherwell May 2025
- Motherwell 0–0 Heart of Midlothian Apr 2025
- Heart of Midlothian 1–0 Motherwell Jan 2025
- Motherwell 3–1 Heart of Midlothian Aug 2024
- Heart of Midlothian 2–0 Motherwell Feb 2024
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Heart of Midlothian v Motherwell?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Heart of Midlothian v Motherwell?
The most confident call it got wrong was Sabah Kerjota at 94% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Scottish Premiership?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.