Kilmarnock v Heart of Midlothian
How the SharpXI model rated this Scottish Premiership fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Kilmarnock drew with Heart of Midlothian 1–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 9 landed — the strongest being Cláudio Braga for 1+ shots total (96%, had 4). Its clearest miss: Joe Hugill for 1+ shots total (89%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cláudio Braga | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 4 | ✓ |
| Tyreece John-Jules | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Sabah Kerjota | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Josh McPake | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jerome Williams | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| Severin Sabri Guendouz | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 4 | ✓ |
| James Wilson | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| Calvin Miller | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 3 | ✓ |
| Joe Hugill | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ageu | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 0 | ✗ |
| Greg Kiltie | shots total | 1+ | 81% | 1 | ✓ |
| Tomas Magnusson | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 0 | ✗ |
| Cláudio Braga | shots on target | 1+ | 73% | 0 | ✗ |
| Laurent Mendy | shots total | 1+ | 69% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Kilmarnock 1–0 Heart of Midlothian Mar 2026
- Heart of Midlothian 1–1 Kilmarnock Dec 2025
- Kilmarnock 0–3 Heart of Midlothian Oct 2025
- Kilmarnock 0–1 Heart of Midlothian May 2025
- Heart of Midlothian 3–2 Kilmarnock Jan 2025
- Kilmarnock 1–0 Heart of Midlothian Dec 2024
- Heart of Midlothian 1–2 Kilmarnock Oct 2024
- Kilmarnock 0–0 Heart of Midlothian Apr 2024
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Kilmarnock v Heart of Midlothian?
9 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Kilmarnock v Heart of Midlothian?
The most confident call it got wrong was Joe Hugill at 89% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Scottish Premiership?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.