Duncan Nicolson
Over the last 10 Scottish Premiership games Duncan Nicolson has officiated, the average is 4.30 cards a match — 7% above the league average of 4.02. That splits 4.2 yellow and 0.1 red a game — a red in 1 of the 10. The away side sees more cards — 2.9 to 1.4 a game, a sharper split than the league's 0.3 gap. 5+ cards landed in 40% of those games (4 of 10), from a 17.4% foul-to-booking rate. These are raw match figures from those games, not odds.
Match cards last 10 games
Career profile
The two numbers that matter are vs league — the multiplier the model applies to a player's booking chance — and conversion, the share of fouls Duncan Nicolson turns into bookings. Conversion, not the raw foul count, is where a referee's real card tendency lives. Career figures across every Scottish Premiership season on record.
| Measure | Nicolson | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Cards / match | 4.25 | 4.02 |
| vs league | 1.06× | 1.00× |
| Foul-to-card conversion | 17.3% | 17.7% |
| Fouls / match | 24.5 | 22.7 |
| Red cards shown | 2 | — |
| Matches on record | 16 (2 in 26/27) | — |
Recent matches
The last 8 Scottish Premiership games Duncan Nicolson took charge of — the actual card and foul counts a match-cards line settles on.
| Match | Score | Cards | Y | R | Fouls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kilmarnock v Heart of Midlothian19 Sep | 1–1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 30 |
| Falkirk FC v St. Mirren1 Aug | 0–2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 36 |
| Falkirk FC v Rangers16 May | 2–5 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 20 |
| Aberdeen v Dundee United9 May | 2–0 | 6 1 red | 5 | 1 | 28 |
| Celtic v St. Mirren11 Apr | 1–0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 26 |
| Motherwell v Falkirk FC4 Apr | 2–3 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 30 |
| Dundee FC v Dundee United15 Mar | 2–2 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 18 |
| Heart of Midlothian v Falkirk FC21 Feb | 1–0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 18 |
● a red card in that match
Frequently asked
How many cards does Duncan Nicolson give per game?
Duncan Nicolson averages 4.25 cards a game across 16 Scottish Premiership matches — 6% above the league average of 4.02. On a Duncan Nicolson appointment, the model multiplies every player's booking chance by 1.06.
Is Duncan Nicolson a strict referee?
About average. The honest measure is foul-to-card conversion — the share of fouls that become bookings — and Duncan Nicolson runs at 17.3% against a league average of 17.7%. Foul counts barely vary between officials; the rate at which a foul becomes a booking is where referees genuinely differ.
Does Duncan Nicolson's record change bet builder card prices?
It should. The referee is the single biggest factor in the to-be-carded market, and the appointment is public before kick-off — so a strict official on a combative player is the archetypal card edge. The player cards guide walks through exactly how the model turns a tendency like this into a price.
How reliable is Duncan Nicolson's card rate?
It rests on 16 career matches, a solid record. The model shrinks a referee's tendency toward the league average when the sample is thin and discounts its own confidence for officials with young records, so a number like this never gets trusted beyond what the evidence earns.
Rates shown are figures from public match data for context; the model adds shrinkage and an opponent factor, and discounts its confidence for thin referee records, before flagging any card as value. It compares against the bookmaker's price as offered — card markets are priced one side only, so that price still carries the bookmaker's margin. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.