Falkirk FC v St. Mirren
How the SharpXI model rated this Scottish Premiership fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Falkirk FC lost to St. Mirren 0–2, the SharpXI model made 12 confident calls on the player markets and 7 landed — the strongest being Ross Maclver for 1+ shots total (89%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Ethan Ross for 1+ shots total (82%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ross Maclver | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jake Young | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| Killian Phillips | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 5 | ✓ |
| Ben Parkinson | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ethan Ross | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 0 | ✗ |
| Paul Nsio | shots total | 1+ | 69% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ross Maclver | shots on target | 1+ | 63% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jake Young | shots on target | 1+ | 63% | 0 | ✗ |
| Craig Sibbald | shots total | 1+ | 62% | 2 | ✓ |
| Finn Yeats | shots total | 1+ | 62% | 3 | ✓ |
| Alexander Gogić | shots total | 1+ | 62% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ben Parkinson | shots on target | 1+ | 54% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jayden Richardson | shots total | 1+ | 49% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ethan Ross | shots on target | 1+ | 45% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Falkirk FC 1–2 St. Mirren Mar 2026
- St. Mirren 0–2 Falkirk FC Jan 2026
- Falkirk FC 1–2 St. Mirren Sep 2025
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Falkirk FC v St. Mirren?
7 of its 12 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Falkirk FC v St. Mirren?
The most confident call it got wrong was Ethan Ross at 82% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Scottish Premiership?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.