Grainger, Graham
Grainger, Graham has not taken charge of a Scottish Premiership match in 26/27. The figures below are a career record. Over the last 10 Scottish Premiership games Grainger, Graham has officiated, the average is 3.50 cards a match — 13% below the league average of 4.02. That splits 3.3 yellow and 0.2 red a game — a red in 2 of the 10. The home side sees more cards — 1.5 to 2.0 a game, a sharper split than the league's 0.3 gap. 5+ cards landed in 30% of those games (3 of 10), from a 16.7% foul-to-booking rate. These are raw match figures from those games, not odds.
Match cards last 10 games
Career profile
The two numbers that matter are vs league — the multiplier the model applies to a player's booking chance — and conversion, the share of fouls Grainger, Graham turns into bookings. Conversion, not the raw foul count, is where a referee's real card tendency lives. Career figures across every Scottish Premiership season on record.
| Measure | Graham | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Cards / match | 3.36 | 4.02 |
| vs league | 0.84× | 1.00× |
| Foul-to-card conversion | 15.8% | 17.7% |
| Fouls / match | 21.3 | 22.7 |
| Red cards shown | 3 | — |
| Matches on record | 14 (0 in 26/27) | — |
Recent matches
The last 8 Scottish Premiership games Grainger, Graham took charge of — the actual card and foul counts a match-cards line settles on.
| Match | Score | Cards | Y | R | Fouls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Livingston v Aberdeen6 Apr | 0–0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 22 |
| Kilmarnock v Aberdeen24 Feb | 2–0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 32 |
| Dundee FC v Heart of Midlothian3 Feb | 2–3 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 13 |
| St. Johnstone v Hibernian16 Dec | 1–0 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 18 |
| Motherwell v Ross County28 Oct | 3–3 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 19 |
| St. Johnstone v Livingston30 Sep | 1–1 | 5 1 red | 4 | 1 | 28 |
| St. Johnstone v Livingston28 May | 2–0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 20 |
| Hibernian v Motherwell1 Apr | 1–3 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 19 |
● a red card in that match
Grainger, Graham has officiated only 14 matches on our record — a thin sample. The model shrinks a thin referee tendency toward the league average and discounts its confidence until the evidence builds, so read the numbers above gently.
Frequently asked
How many cards does Grainger, Graham give per game?
Grainger, Graham averages 3.36 cards a game across 14 Scottish Premiership matches — 16% below the league average of 4.02. That's a raw rate from only 14 matches, so the model shrinks it toward the league average rather than trusting it outright.
Is Grainger, Graham a strict referee?
No — slightly more lenient than most. The honest measure is foul-to-card conversion — the share of fouls that become bookings — and Grainger, Graham runs at 15.8% against a league average of 17.7%. Foul counts barely vary between officials; the rate at which a foul becomes a booking is where referees genuinely differ.
Does Grainger, Graham's record change bet builder card prices?
It should. The referee is the single biggest factor in the to-be-carded market, and the appointment is public before kick-off — so a strict official on a combative player is the archetypal card edge. The player cards guide walks through exactly how the model turns a tendency like this into a price.
How reliable is Grainger, Graham's card rate?
It rests on 14 career matches, still a thin sample — read it gently. The model shrinks a referee's tendency toward the league average when the sample is thin and discounts its own confidence for officials with young records, so a number like this never gets trusted beyond what the evidence earns.
Rates shown are figures from public match data for context; the model adds shrinkage and an opponent factor, and discounts its confidence for thin referee records, before flagging any card as value. It compares against the bookmaker's price as offered — card markets are priced one side only, so that price still carries the bookmaker's margin. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.