Motherwell v Livingston
How the SharpXI model rated this Scottish Premiership fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Motherwell beat Livingston 3–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Apostolos Stamatelopoulos for 1+ shots total (94%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Jeremy Bokila for 1+ shots total (89%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apostolos Stamatelopoulos | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 3 | ✓ |
| Callum Hendry | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Robbie Muirhead | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Lewis Smith | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 3 | ✓ |
| Stevie May | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| Regan Charles-Cook | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 2 | ✓ |
| Tawanda Maswanhise | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| Elijah Just | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| Tete Yengi | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jeremy Bokila | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 0 | ✗ |
| Oscar Priestman | shots total | 1+ | 69% | 0 | ✗ |
| Apostolos Stamatelopoulos | shots on target | 1+ | 67% | 2 | ✓ |
| Robbie Muirhead | shots on target | 1+ | 63% | 0 | ✗ |
| Stevie May | shots on target | 1+ | 63% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Livingston 0–2 Motherwell Jan 2026
- Livingston 1–2 Motherwell Oct 2025
- Motherwell 4–1 Livingston May 2024
- Livingston 1–3 Motherwell Feb 2024
- Motherwell 3–1 Livingston Dec 2023
- Livingston 2–0 Motherwell Oct 2023
- Livingston 1–1 Motherwell May 2023
- Motherwell 3–0 Livingston Apr 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Motherwell v Livingston?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Motherwell v Livingston?
The most confident call it got wrong was Jeremy Bokila at 89% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Scottish Premiership?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.