Motherwell v St. Johnstone
How the SharpXI model rated this Scottish Premiership fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Motherwell beat St. Johnstone 3–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Josh McPake for 1+ shots total (94%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Adama Sidibeh for 1+ shots total (96%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adama Sidibeh | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 0 | ✗ |
| Josh McPake | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 3 | ✓ |
| Tony Watt | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 2 | ✓ |
| Taylor Steven | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 4 | ✓ |
| Makenzie Kirk | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| Luke Armstrong | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 0 | ✗ |
| Graham Carey | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 2 | ✓ |
| Callum Slattery | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 5 | ✓ |
| Lennon Miller | shots total | 1+ | 69% | 4 | ✓ |
| Stephen Duke-McKenna | shots total | 1+ | 69% | 1 | ✓ |
| Josh McPake | shots on target | 1+ | 63% | 0 | ✗ |
| Adama Sidibeh | shots on target | 1+ | 63% | 0 | ✗ |
| Dan Casey | shots total | 1+ | 62% | 2 | ✓ |
| Elliot Watt | shots total | 1+ | 62% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- St. Johnstone 2–1 Motherwell Jan 2025
- Motherwell 2–1 St. Johnstone Nov 2024
- St. Johnstone 1–2 Motherwell Aug 2024
- Motherwell 1–2 St. Johnstone May 2024
- St. Johnstone 1–1 Motherwell Jan 2024
- Motherwell 1–1 St. Johnstone Dec 2023
- St. Johnstone 2–2 Motherwell Nov 2023
- St. Johnstone 0–2 Motherwell May 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Motherwell v St. Johnstone?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Motherwell v St. Johnstone?
The most confident call it got wrong was Adama Sidibeh at 96% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Scottish Premiership?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.