AC Milan v Hellas Verona
How the SharpXI model rated this Serie A fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before AC Milan beat Hellas Verona 3–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Antoine Bernede for 1+ tackles (97%, had 4). Its clearest miss: Daniel Mosquera for 1+ shots total (95%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antoine Bernede | tackles | 1+ | 97% | 4 | ✓ |
| Christopher Nkunku | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 2 | ✓ |
| Daniel Mosquera | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 0 | ✗ |
| Gift Orban | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 2 | ✓ |
| Christian Pulišić | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 1 | ✓ |
| Alexis Saelemaekers | fouls drawn | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Giovane | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ruben Loftus-Cheek | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| Cheikh Niasse | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 3 | ✓ |
| Nicolás Valentini | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Fikayo Tomori | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Antoine Bernede | fouls committed | 1+ | 84% | 4 | ✓ |
| Christian Pulišić | fouls drawn | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ardon Jashari | fouls drawn | 1+ | 83% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Tackles Shots total Fouls drawn Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 51% | 3 goals | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 50% | No | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 45% | 1 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match goals Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Hellas Verona 0–1 AC Milan Apr 2026
- AC Milan 1–0 Hellas Verona Feb 2025
- Hellas Verona 0–1 AC Milan Dec 2024
- Hellas Verona 1–3 AC Milan Mar 2024
- AC Milan 1–0 Hellas Verona Sep 2023
- AC Milan 3–1 Hellas Verona Jun 2023
- Hellas Verona 1–2 AC Milan Oct 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on AC Milan v Hellas Verona?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on AC Milan v Hellas Verona?
The most confident call it got wrong was Daniel Mosquera at 95% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Serie A?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.