AS Roma v Fiorentina
How the SharpXI model rated this Serie A fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before AS Roma beat Fiorentina 4–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Donyell Malen for 1+ shots total (95%, had 5). Its clearest miss: Álex Jiménez for 1+ tackles (90%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donyell Malen | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 5 | ✓ |
| Moise Kean | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 2 | ✓ |
| Paulo Dybala | fouls drawn | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Donyell Malen | shots on target | 1+ | 92% | 3 | ✓ |
| Álex Jiménez | tackles | 1+ | 90% | 0 | ✗ |
| Mateo Pellegrino | fouls committed | 1+ | 88% | 0 | ✗ |
| Paulo Dybala | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 4 | ✓ |
| Santiago Castro | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Franco Mastantuono | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Mateo Pellegrino | shots total | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Mateo Pellegrino | fouls drawn | 1+ | 85% | 3 | ✓ |
| Franco Mastantuono | fouls drawn | 1+ | 85% | 4 | ✓ |
| Manu Koné | fouls drawn | 1+ | 83% | 2 | ✓ |
| Wesley | fouls drawn | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Fouls drawn Shots on target Tackles Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 60% | 4 cards | ✗ |
| BTTS | Yes | 51% | No | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 49% | 4 goals | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Match cards BTTS
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- AS Roma 4–0 Fiorentina May 2026
- Fiorentina 1–2 AS Roma Oct 2025
- AS Roma 1–0 Fiorentina May 2025
- Fiorentina 5–1 AS Roma Oct 2024
- Fiorentina 2–2 AS Roma Mar 2024
- AS Roma 1–1 Fiorentina Dec 2023
- Fiorentina 2–1 AS Roma May 2023
- AS Roma 2–0 Fiorentina Jan 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on AS Roma v Fiorentina?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on AS Roma v Fiorentina?
The most confident call it got wrong was Álex Jiménez at 90% for tackles — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Serie A?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.