Atalanta v Empoli
How the SharpXI model rated this Serie A fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Atalanta beat Empoli 3–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Mario Pašalić for 1+ shots total (95%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Mateo Retegui for 1+ shots total (95%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Pašalić | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 1 | ✓ |
| Sebastiano Esposito | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 3 | ✓ |
| Ademola Lookman | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 2 | ✓ |
| Mateo Retegui | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 0 | ✗ |
| Nicolò Zaniolo | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 1 | ✓ |
| Lazar Samardžić | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 1 | ✓ |
| Nicolò Zaniolo | fouls drawn | 1+ | 94% | 3 | ✓ |
| Mateo Retegui | shots on target | 1+ | 92% | 0 | ✗ |
| Saba Goglichidze | tackles | 1+ | 90% | 3 | ✓ |
| Lorenzo Colombo | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Charles De Ketelaere | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 5 | ✓ |
| Alberto Grassi | tackles | 1+ | 87% | 1 | ✓ |
| Liam Henderson | tackles | 1+ | 87% | 0 | ✗ |
| Youssef Maleh | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Fouls drawn Shots on target Tackles
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 48% | 5 goals | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 40% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 14% | 2 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match goals Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Empoli 0–5 Atalanta Feb 2025
- Atalanta 2–0 Empoli Apr 2024
- Empoli 0–3 Atalanta Oct 2023
- Atalanta 2–1 Empoli Mar 2023
- Empoli 0–2 Atalanta Oct 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Atalanta v Empoli?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Atalanta v Empoli?
The most confident call it got wrong was Mateo Retegui at 95% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Serie A?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.