Cremonese v AS Roma
How the SharpXI model rated this Serie A fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Cremonese lost to AS Roma 1–3, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Lorenzo Pellegrini for 1+ shots total (95%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Stephan El Shaarawy for 1+ shots total (95%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephan El Shaarawy | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 0 | ✗ |
| Evan Ferguson | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 1 | ✓ |
| Matías Soulé | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 2 | ✓ |
| Lorenzo Pellegrini | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 1 | ✓ |
| Tommaso Baldanzi | fouls drawn | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Lorenzo Pellegrini | shots on target | 1+ | 92% | 1 | ✓ |
| Stephan El Shaarawy | shots on target | 1+ | 92% | 0 | ✗ |
| Martín Payero | fouls committed | 1+ | 90% | 0 | ✗ |
| Franco Vázquez | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Bryan Cristante | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Federico Bonazzoli | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 3 | ✓ |
| Tommaso Baldanzi | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| Tommaso Barbieri | tackles | 1+ | 87% | 2 | ✓ |
| Lorenzo Pellegrini | fouls drawn | 1+ | 85% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Fouls drawn Shots on target Fouls committed Tackles
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 60% | 4 cards | ✗ |
| BTTS | Yes | 47% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 44% | 4 goals | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Match cards BTTS
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- AS Roma 3–0 Cremonese Feb 2026
- Cremonese 2–1 AS Roma Feb 2023
- AS Roma 1–0 Cremonese Aug 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Cremonese v AS Roma?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Cremonese v AS Roma?
The most confident call it got wrong was Stephan El Shaarawy at 95% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Serie A?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.