Empoli v AC Milan
How the SharpXI model rated this Serie A fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Empoli lost to AC Milan 0–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 13 landed — the strongest being Rafael Leão for 1+ shots total (95%, had 4). Its clearest miss: Tammy Abraham for 1+ shots total (88%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| João Félix | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 5 | ✓ |
| Tijjani Reijnders | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 1 | ✓ |
| Christian Pulišić | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 1 | ✓ |
| Sebastiano Esposito | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 1 | ✓ |
| Rafael Leão | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 4 | ✓ |
| João Félix | fouls drawn | 1+ | 94% | 4 | ✓ |
| João Félix | shots on target | 1+ | 92% | 1 | ✓ |
| Liam Henderson | fouls committed | 1+ | 89% | 2 | ✓ |
| Tammy Abraham | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 0 | ✗ |
| Lorenzo Colombo | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| Theo Hernández | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Youssouf Fofana | tackles | 1+ | 87% | 1 | ✓ |
| Saba Goglichidze | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Mattia Viti | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Fouls drawn Shots on target Fouls committed Tackles
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 47% | No | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 45% | 2 goals | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 36% | 7 cards | ✓ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- AC Milan 3–0 Empoli Nov 2024
- AC Milan 1–0 Empoli Mar 2024
- Empoli 0–3 AC Milan Jan 2024
- AC Milan 0–0 Empoli Apr 2023
- Empoli 1–3 AC Milan Oct 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Empoli v AC Milan?
13 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Empoli v AC Milan?
The most confident call it got wrong was Tammy Abraham at 88% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Serie A?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.