Empoli v Lazio
How the SharpXI model rated this Serie A fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Empoli lost to Lazio 0–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 9 landed — the strongest being Valentín Castellanos for 1+ shots total (95%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Valentín Castellanos for 1+ shots on target (92%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gustav Isaksen | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 2 | ✓ |
| Valentín Castellanos | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 3 | ✓ |
| Pedro | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 2 | ✓ |
| Mattia Zaccagni | fouls drawn | 1+ | 94% | 3 | ✓ |
| Valentín Castellanos | shots on target | 1+ | 92% | 0 | ✗ |
| Nicolò Rovella | tackles | 1+ | 90% | 3 | ✓ |
| Ismael Konate | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 0 | ✗ |
| Mattia Zaccagni | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 0 | ✗ |
| Boulaye Dia | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Lorenzo Colombo | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 0 | ✗ |
| Gustav Isaksen | fouls drawn | 1+ | 85% | 1 | ✓ |
| Pedro | fouls drawn | 1+ | 85% | 0 | ✗ |
| Matías Vecino | fouls committed | 1+ | 85% | 1 | ✓ |
| Valentín Castellanos | fouls drawn | 1+ | 83% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Fouls drawn Shots on target Tackles Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 48% | 10 cards | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 45% | No | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 40% | 1 goals | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match cards BTTS
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Lazio 2–1 Empoli Oct 2024
- Lazio 2–0 Empoli May 2024
- Empoli 0–2 Lazio Dec 2023
- Empoli 0–2 Lazio Jun 2023
- Lazio 2–2 Empoli Jan 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Empoli v Lazio?
9 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Empoli v Lazio?
The most confident call it got wrong was Valentín Castellanos at 92% for shots on target — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Serie A?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.