Fiorentina v SSC Napoli
How the SharpXI model rated this Serie A fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Fiorentina drew with SSC Napoli 1–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Lorenzo Lucca for 1+ shots total (95%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Álex Jiménez for 1+ tackles (97%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Álex Jiménez | tackles | 1+ | 97% | 0 | ✗ |
| Franco Mastantuono | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 4 | ✓ |
| Lorenzo Lucca | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 1 | ✓ |
| Mathías Olivera | tackles | 1+ | 90% | 4 | ✓ |
| Lorenzo Lucca | fouls committed | 1+ | 90% | 1 | ✓ |
| Beto | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Víctor Valdepeñas | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Nicolò Fagioli | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Mateo Pellegrino | fouls drawn | 1+ | 83% | 0 | ✗ |
| Franco Mastantuono | fouls drawn | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
| Lorenzo Lucca | fouls drawn | 1+ | 83% | 0 | ✗ |
| Alieu Njie | fouls drawn | 1+ | 83% | 2 | ✓ |
| Mateo Pellegrino | fouls committed | 1+ | 82% | 1 | ✓ |
| Viery | tackles | 1+ | 82% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Tackles Shots total Fouls committed Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 50% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 44% | 2 goals | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 12% | 3 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- SSC Napoli 2–1 Fiorentina Jan 2026
- Fiorentina 1–3 SSC Napoli Sep 2025
- SSC Napoli 2–1 Fiorentina Mar 2025
- Fiorentina 0–3 SSC Napoli Jan 2025
- Fiorentina 2–2 SSC Napoli May 2024
- SSC Napoli 1–3 Fiorentina Oct 2023
- SSC Napoli 1–0 Fiorentina May 2023
- Fiorentina 0–0 SSC Napoli Aug 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Fiorentina v SSC Napoli?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Fiorentina v SSC Napoli?
The most confident call it got wrong was Álex Jiménez at 97% for tackles — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Serie A?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.