Genoa v Como
How the SharpXI model rated this Serie A fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Genoa lost to Como 1–4, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Morten Frendrup for 1+ tackles (97%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Moise Kean for 1+ shots total (95%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morten Frendrup | tackles | 1+ | 97% | 1 | ✓ |
| Junior Messias | tackles | 1+ | 97% | 1 | ✓ |
| Nico Paz | tackles | 1+ | 97% | 2 | ✓ |
| Assane Diao | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 3 | ✓ |
| Moise Kean | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 0 | ✗ |
| Nico Paz | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 3 | ✓ |
| Anastasios Douvikas | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 3 | ✓ |
| Junior Messias | fouls drawn | 1+ | 94% | 0 | ✗ |
| Vitinha | fouls drawn | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Assane Diao | fouls drawn | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Moise Kean | shots on target | 1+ | 92% | 0 | ✗ |
| Vitinha | shots total | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Djibril Sow | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Lorenzo Colombo | fouls drawn | 1+ | 85% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Tackles Shots total Fouls drawn Shots on target
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 47% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 42% | 5 goals | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 25% | 3 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Genoa 0–2 Como Apr 2026
- Como 1–1 Genoa Sep 2025
- Como 1–0 Genoa Apr 2025
- Genoa 1–1 Como Nov 2024
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Genoa v Como?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Genoa v Como?
The most confident call it got wrong was Moise Kean at 95% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Serie A?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.