Hellas Verona v AS Roma
How the SharpXI model rated this Serie A fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Hellas Verona lost to AS Roma 0–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 13 landed — the strongest being Martin Frese for 1+ tackles (97%, had 4). Its clearest miss: Victor Nelsson for 1+ tackles (87%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Frese | tackles | 1+ | 97% | 4 | ✓ |
| Paulo Dybala | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 5 | ✓ |
| Donyell Malen | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 3 | ✓ |
| Paulo Dybala | fouls drawn | 1+ | 94% | 5 | ✓ |
| Tomáš Suslov | fouls drawn | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Donyell Malen | shots on target | 1+ | 92% | 2 | ✓ |
| Kieron Bowie | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 4 | ✓ |
| Matías Soulé | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 3 | ✓ |
| Victor Nelsson | tackles | 1+ | 87% | 0 | ✗ |
| Abdou Harroui | tackles | 1+ | 87% | 2 | ✓ |
| Sandi Lovrić | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 5 | ✓ |
| Kieron Bowie | fouls committed | 1+ | 84% | 2 | ✓ |
| Abdou Harroui | fouls committed | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
| Matías Soulé | fouls drawn | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Tackles Shots total Fouls drawn Shots on target Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 43% | 4 cards | ✗ |
| BTTS | Yes | 41% | No | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 36% | 2 goals | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match cards BTTS
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- AS Roma 2–0 Hellas Verona Sep 2025
- AS Roma 1–0 Hellas Verona Apr 2025
- Hellas Verona 3–2 AS Roma Nov 2024
- AS Roma 2–1 Hellas Verona Jan 2024
- Hellas Verona 2–1 AS Roma Aug 2023
- AS Roma 1–0 Hellas Verona Feb 2023
- Hellas Verona 1–3 AS Roma Oct 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Hellas Verona v AS Roma?
13 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Hellas Verona v AS Roma?
The most confident call it got wrong was Victor Nelsson at 87% for tackles — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Serie A?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.