Inter v Monza
How the SharpXI model rated this Serie A fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Inter beat Monza 4–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Hakan Çalhanoğlu for 1+ shots total (95%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Lautaro Martínez for 1+ shots total (95%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lautaro Martínez | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 0 | ✗ |
| Pio Esposito | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 5 | ✓ |
| Hakan Çalhanoğlu | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 1 | ✓ |
| Lautaro Martínez | shots on target | 1+ | 92% | 0 | ✗ |
| Federico Dimarco | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Patrick Cutrone | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 0 | ✗ |
| Andy Diouf | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 0 | ✗ |
| Petar Sučić | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Pio Esposito | fouls drawn | 1+ | 85% | 4 | ✓ |
| Lautaro Martínez | fouls drawn | 1+ | 83% | 2 | ✓ |
| Lautaro Martínez | fouls committed | 1+ | 82% | 1 | ✓ |
| Andy Diouf | tackles | 1+ | 80% | 1 | ✓ |
| Hakan Çalhanoğlu | tackles | 1+ | 80% | 1 | ✓ |
| Alessandro Bastoni | tackles | 1+ | 80% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target Tackles Fouls drawn Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 59% | 5 goals | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 43% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 21% | 4 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match goals Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Inter 3–2 Monza Mar 2025
- Monza 1–1 Inter Sep 2024
- Monza 1–5 Inter Jan 2024
- Inter 2–0 Monza Aug 2023
- Inter 0–1 Monza Apr 2023
- Monza 2–2 Inter Jan 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Inter v Monza?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Inter v Monza?
The most confident call it got wrong was Lautaro Martínez at 95% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Serie A?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.