Lazio v AC Milan
How the SharpXI model rated this Serie A fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Lazio drew with AC Milan 2–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Christian Pulišić for 1+ shots total (95%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Gustav Isaksen for 1+ shots total (95%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gustav Isaksen | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 0 | ✗ |
| Alphadjo Cissè | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 1 | ✓ |
| Gonçalo Ramos | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 1 | ✓ |
| Christian Pulišić | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 1 | ✓ |
| Gustav Isaksen | fouls drawn | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Davide Frattesi | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| Tijjani Noslin | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| Andrea Pinamonti | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 0 | ✗ |
| Matteo Cancellieri | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Reda Belahyane | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 4 | ✓ |
| Mattia Zaccagni | fouls drawn | 1+ | 85% | 3 | ✓ |
| Matteo Cancellieri | fouls drawn | 1+ | 85% | 0 | ✗ |
| Adrien Rabiot | fouls drawn | 1+ | 83% | 0 | ✗ |
| Matteo Cancellieri | fouls committed | 1+ | 81% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Fouls drawn Tackles Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 62% | 5 cards | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 52% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 47% | 4 goals | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Match cards BTTS
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Lazio 1–0 AC Milan Mar 2026
- AC Milan 1–0 Lazio Nov 2025
- AC Milan 1–2 Lazio Mar 2025
- Lazio 2–2 AC Milan Aug 2024
- Lazio 0–1 AC Milan Mar 2024
- AC Milan 2–0 Lazio Sep 2023
- AC Milan 2–0 Lazio May 2023
- Lazio 4–0 AC Milan Jan 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Lazio v AC Milan?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Lazio v AC Milan?
The most confident call it got wrong was Gustav Isaksen at 95% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Serie A?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.