Monza v Hellas Verona
How the SharpXI model rated this Serie A fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Monza lost to Hellas Verona 0–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being Daniel Mosquera for 1+ shots total (95%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Kevin Martins for 1+ shots total (95%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Mosquera | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 2 | ✓ |
| Kevin Martins | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 0 | ✗ |
| Tomáš Suslov | fouls drawn | 1+ | 94% | 3 | ✓ |
| Samuele Vignato | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 0 | ✗ |
| Dany Mota | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Suat Serdar | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 4 | ✓ |
| Daniel Mosquera | fouls committed | 1+ | 87% | 3 | ✓ |
| Stefano Sensi | fouls drawn | 1+ | 85% | 2 | ✓ |
| Suat Serdar | fouls committed | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
| Armando Izzo | fouls drawn | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
| Kevin Martins | fouls drawn | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
| Armando Izzo | fouls committed | 1+ | 82% | 3 | ✓ |
| Tomáš Suslov | fouls committed | 1+ | 80% | 1 | ✓ |
| Suat Serdar | tackles | 1+ | 80% | 3 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Fouls drawn Fouls committed Tackles
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 60% | 5 cards | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 47% | No | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 41% | 1 goals | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match cards BTTS
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Hellas Verona 0–3 Monza Oct 2024
- Monza 0–0 Hellas Verona Feb 2024
- Hellas Verona 1–3 Monza Nov 2023
- Hellas Verona 1–1 Monza Mar 2023
- Monza 2–0 Hellas Verona Nov 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Monza v Hellas Verona?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Monza v Hellas Verona?
The most confident call it got wrong was Kevin Martins at 95% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Serie A?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.