Spezia v Cremonese
How the SharpXI model rated this Serie A fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Spezia drew with Cremonese 2–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being M'bala Nzola for 1+ shots total (95%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Felix Afena-Gyan for 1+ fouls drawn (83%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Felix Afena-Gyan | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 2 | ✓ |
| David Okereke | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 3 | ✓ |
| Emmanuel Gyasi | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 1 | ✓ |
| M'bala Nzola | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 2 | ✓ |
| Daniel Maldini | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 2 | ✓ |
| Cyriel Dessers | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 3 | ✓ |
| Luca Zanimacchia | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 1 | ✓ |
| Daniel Maldini | shots on target | 1+ | 92% | 1 | ✓ |
| Santiago Ascacíbar | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 4 | ✓ |
| Daniel Maldini | fouls drawn | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
| Felix Afena-Gyan | fouls drawn | 1+ | 83% | 0 | ✗ |
| M'bala Nzola | shots on target | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
| Michele Castagnetti | tackles | 1+ | 80% | 5 | ✓ |
| Giacomo Quagliata | tackles | 1+ | 80% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target Tackles Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 45% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 38% | 4 goals | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 4% | 2 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Cremonese 2–0 Spezia May 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Spezia v Cremonese?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Spezia v Cremonese?
The most confident call it got wrong was Felix Afena-Gyan at 83% for fouls drawn — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Serie A?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.