FC St. Pauli v FC Bayern München
How the SharpXI model rated this Bundesliga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before FC St. Pauli lost to FC Bayern München 0–5, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 13 landed — the strongest being Michael Olise for 1+ shots total (93%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Connor Metcalfe for 1+ tackles (86%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Olise | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jamal Musiala | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 3 | ✓ |
| Joel Chima Fujita | tackles | 1+ | 92% | 1 | ✓ |
| Lars Ritzka | tackles | 1+ | 92% | 4 | ✓ |
| Nicolas Jackson | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 7 | ✓ |
| Luis Díaz | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 2 | ✓ |
| Connor Metcalfe | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Tomoya Ando | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Tom Bischof | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
| Mathias Rasmussen | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 5 | ✓ |
| Nicolas Jackson | shots on target | 1+ | 83% | 3 | ✓ |
| Michael Olise | shots on target | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jamal Musiala | fouls drawn | 1+ | 82% | 1 | ✓ |
| Mathias Pereira Lage | tackles | 1+ | 80% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Shots on target Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 65% | 5 goals | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 55% | No | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 12% | 3 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match goals Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- FC Bayern München 3–1 FC St. Pauli Nov 2025
- FC Bayern München 3–2 FC St. Pauli Mar 2025
- FC St. Pauli 0–1 FC Bayern München Nov 2024
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on FC St. Pauli v FC Bayern München?
13 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on FC St. Pauli v FC Bayern München?
The most confident call it got wrong was Connor Metcalfe at 86% for tackles — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Bundesliga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.