VfL Wolfsburg v 1. FC Union Berlin
How the SharpXI model rated this Bundesliga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before VfL Wolfsburg beat 1. FC Union Berlin 3–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 8 landed — the strongest being Patrick Wimmer for 1+ fouls drawn (80%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Janik Haberer for 1+ fouls committed (78%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Wimmer | fouls drawn | 1+ | 80% | 1 | ✓ |
| Janik Haberer | fouls committed | 1+ | 78% | 0 | ✗ |
| Mohamed Amoura | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 1 | ✓ |
| András Schäfer | fouls committed | 1+ | 77% | 3 | ✓ |
| Patrick Wimmer | fouls committed | 1+ | 77% | 0 | ✗ |
| Andrej Ilić | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
| Lovro Majer | fouls drawn | 1+ | 75% | 1 | ✓ |
| Mattias Svanberg | fouls drawn | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
| Andrej Ilić | fouls committed | 1+ | 74% | 0 | ✗ |
| Lovro Majer | fouls committed | 1+ | 73% | 1 | ✓ |
| András Schäfer | fouls drawn | 1+ | 73% | 0 | ✗ |
| Christopher Trimmel | fouls committed | 1+ | 72% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ilyas Ansah | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 2 | ✓ |
| Mattias Svanberg | fouls committed | 1+ | 72% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Fouls drawn · Fouls committed · Shots total
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 50% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 46% | 4 goals | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 32% | 5 cards | ✓ |
How these are modelled: BTTS · Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- 1. FC Union Berlin 1–2 VfL Wolfsburg Apr 2026
- 1. FC Union Berlin 1–0 VfL Wolfsburg Apr 2025
- VfL Wolfsburg 1–0 1. FC Union Berlin Nov 2024
- 1. FC Union Berlin 1–0 VfL Wolfsburg Feb 2024
- VfL Wolfsburg 2–1 1. FC Union Berlin Sep 2023
- VfL Wolfsburg 1–1 1. FC Union Berlin Mar 2023
- 1. FC Union Berlin 2–0 VfL Wolfsburg Sep 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on VfL Wolfsburg v 1. FC Union Berlin?
8 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on VfL Wolfsburg v 1. FC Union Berlin?
The most confident call it got wrong was Janik Haberer at 78% for fouls committed — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Bundesliga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.