VfL Wolfsburg v 1. FC Union Berlin
How the SharpXI model rated this Bundesliga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before VfL Wolfsburg beat 1. FC Union Berlin 3–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Mohamed Amoura for 1+ shots total (91%, had 1). Its clearest miss: András Schäfer for 1+ tackles (92%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| András Schäfer | tackles | 1+ | 92% | 0 | ✗ |
| Mohamed Amoura | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 1 | ✓ |
| Andrej Ilić | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ilyas Ansah | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 2 | ✓ |
| Oliver Burke | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 2 | ✓ |
| Mattias Svanberg | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 0 | ✗ |
| Patrick Wimmer | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
| Christian Eriksen | shots total | 1+ | 80% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jenson Seelt | tackles | 1+ | 80% | 2 | ✓ |
| Janik Haberer | tackles | 1+ | 80% | 1 | ✓ |
| Patrick Wimmer | fouls drawn | 1+ | 80% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jan Bürger | tackles | 1+ | 78% | 1 | ✓ |
| Saël Kumbedi | tackles | 1+ | 78% | 1 | ✓ |
| Tom Alexander Rothe | tackles | 1+ | 78% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Tackles Shots total Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 55% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 52% | 4 goals | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 29% | 5 cards | ✓ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- 1. FC Union Berlin 1–2 VfL Wolfsburg Apr 2026
- 1. FC Union Berlin 1–0 VfL Wolfsburg Apr 2025
- VfL Wolfsburg 1–0 1. FC Union Berlin Nov 2024
- 1. FC Union Berlin 1–0 VfL Wolfsburg Feb 2024
- VfL Wolfsburg 2–1 1. FC Union Berlin Sep 2023
- VfL Wolfsburg 1–1 1. FC Union Berlin Mar 2023
- 1. FC Union Berlin 2–0 VfL Wolfsburg Sep 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on VfL Wolfsburg v 1. FC Union Berlin?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on VfL Wolfsburg v 1. FC Union Berlin?
The most confident call it got wrong was András Schäfer at 92% for tackles — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Bundesliga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.