Birmingham City v Sunderland
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Birmingham City beat Sunderland 2–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 9 landed — the strongest being Jack Clarke for 1+ fouls drawn (84%, had 5). Its clearest miss: Juninho Bacuna for 1+ fouls committed (85%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juninho Bacuna | fouls committed | 1+ | 85% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jack Clarke | fouls drawn | 1+ | 84% | 5 | ✓ |
| Krystian Bielik | fouls committed | 1+ | 81% | 1 | ✓ |
| Tyler Roberts | fouls committed | 1+ | 80% | 3 | ✓ |
| Ethan Laird | fouls drawn | 1+ | 79% | 4 | ✓ |
| Abdoullah Ba | fouls drawn | 1+ | 79% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jack Clarke | shots total | 1+ | 79% | 3 | ✓ |
| Jack Clarke | fouls committed | 1+ | 78% | 0 | ✗ |
| Koji Miyoshi | fouls committed | 1+ | 78% | 4 | ✓ |
| Nazariy Rusyn | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jobe Bellingham | fouls drawn | 1+ | 77% | 4 | ✓ |
| Jay Stansfield | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 2 | ✓ |
| Juninho Bacuna | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jay Stansfield | fouls committed | 1+ | 75% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Fouls committed · Fouls drawn · Shots total
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 64% | 8 cards | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 50% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 45% | 3 goals | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Match cards · BTTS
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Sunderland 3–1 Birmingham City Nov 2023
- Sunderland 2–1 Birmingham City Apr 2023
- Birmingham City 1–2 Sunderland Nov 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Birmingham City v Sunderland?
9 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Birmingham City v Sunderland?
The most confident call it got wrong was Juninho Bacuna at 85% for fouls committed — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.