Burnley v Reading
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Burnley beat Reading 2–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 14 landed — the strongest being Jay Rodriguez for 1+ shots total (89%, had 2). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benson Manuel | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jay Rodriguez | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 2 | ✓ |
| Josh Brownhill | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 5 | ✓ |
| Mamadou Loum | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Andy Yiadom | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Junior Hoilett | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ovie Ejaria | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Rahman Baba | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 3 | ✓ |
| Ian Maatsen | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Mamadou Loum | fouls committed | 1+ | 85% | 2 | ✓ |
| Yakou Méïté | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 2 | ✓ |
| Vitinho | tackles | 1+ | 80% | 2 | ✓ |
| Amadou Salif Mbengue | tackles | 1+ | 80% | 2 | ✓ |
| Tom Ince | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 27% | 7 cards | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 13% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 13% | 3 goals | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Match cards BTTS
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Reading 0–0 Burnley Apr 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Burnley v Reading?
14 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Burnley v Reading?
Every one of its confident calls landed this time — a single strong game, not a verdict. When the model does miss, those rows sit in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross; we never hide them.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.