Cardiff City v Coventry City
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Cardiff City drew with Coventry City 1–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being Chris Willock for 1+ fouls drawn (82%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Yakou Méïté for 1+ fouls committed (78%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Willock | fouls drawn | 1+ | 82% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ellis Simms | shots total | 1+ | 80% | 4 | ✓ |
| Yakou Méïté | fouls committed | 1+ | 78% | 0 | ✗ |
| Yakou Méïté | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 3 | ✓ |
| Alex Robertson | fouls committed | 1+ | 76% | 2 | ✓ |
| Callum Robinson | shots total | 1+ | 75% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ollie Tanner | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jack Rudoni | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 2 | ✓ |
| Victor Torp | fouls committed | 1+ | 72% | 2 | ✓ |
| Andy Rinomhota | fouls drawn | 1+ | 72% | 3 | ✓ |
| Ollie Tanner | fouls committed | 1+ | 72% | 1 | ✓ |
| Perry Ng | fouls drawn | 1+ | 72% | 1 | ✓ |
| Manolis Siopis | fouls drawn | 1+ | 72% | 0 | ✗ |
| Josh Eccles | fouls drawn | 1+ | 71% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Fouls drawn · Shots total · Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 51% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 48% | 2 goals | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 35% | 3 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: BTTS · Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Coventry City 2–2 Cardiff City Nov 2024
- Coventry City 1–2 Cardiff City Apr 2024
- Cardiff City 3–2 Coventry City Sep 2023
- Coventry City 0–0 Cardiff City Dec 2022
- Cardiff City 0–1 Coventry City Oct 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Cardiff City v Coventry City?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Cardiff City v Coventry City?
The most confident call it got wrong was Yakou Méïté at 78% for fouls committed — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.