Cardiff City v Luton
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Cardiff City lost to Luton 1–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Yousef Salech for 1+ fouls committed (80%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Jacob Brown for 1+ fouls drawn (82%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Brown | fouls drawn | 1+ | 82% | 0 | ✗ |
| Elijah Adebayo | fouls committed | 1+ | 82% | 0 | ✗ |
| Yousef Salech | fouls committed | 1+ | 80% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jacob Brown | shots total | 1+ | 79% | 0 | ✗ |
| Alex Robertson | fouls committed | 1+ | 79% | 1 | ✓ |
| Aaron Ramsey | fouls committed | 1+ | 79% | 1 | ✓ |
| Callum Robinson | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 1 | ✓ |
| Chris Willock | fouls drawn | 1+ | 78% | 1 | ✓ |
| Perry Ng | fouls drawn | 1+ | 77% | 2 | ✓ |
| Elijah Adebayo | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 0 | ✗ |
| Yousef Salech | shots total | 1+ | 75% | 1 | ✓ |
| Carlton Morris | fouls committed | 1+ | 74% | 3 | ✓ |
| Millenic Alli | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 2 | ✓ |
| Isaiah Jones | fouls committed | 1+ | 72% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Fouls drawn · Fouls committed · Shots total
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 48% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 42% | 3 goals | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 30% | 2 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: BTTS · Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Luton 1–0 Cardiff City Nov 2024
- Luton 1–0 Cardiff City Jan 2023
- Cardiff City 1–2 Luton Aug 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Cardiff City v Luton?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Cardiff City v Luton?
The most confident call it got wrong was Jacob Brown at 82% for fouls drawn — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.